The team of analysts at Open Data Albania has made a Projection of the allocation of Mandates in the Parliamentary Elections to be held in 2025. For this projection, we relied on the regional results of the electoral subjects for the municipal councils in the elections held on May 14, 2023.
If the 2025 elections are held applying the same electoral system, with the same political parties participating in elections, and with the number of votes being the same as in 2023, the Socialist Party would win 84 Mandates, i.e. 10 more than in 2021 elections. This is the first paradox found in calculating this projection. While the SP received fewer votes in 2023 than in 2021, the formula and the system would guarantee more mandates for this party.
The presence of many small and fragmented parties without pre-election coalitions distorts representation.
More specifically, the SP received 768,134 votes in 2021, while in the election process of May 14, SP managed to receive only 579,576 votes for the municipal council. That is24.5% less people voted for the SP. Although with electoral shrinkage, the SP would manage to get such a number of votes that would be translated into the majority of three fifths of the Assembly. This is because 40 Entities were registered in the May 14 elections compared to 12 in the 2021 elections.
With the same formula and the same legal provision of Article 162 of the (current) Electoral Code applied as in the May 14 elections, parliamentary mandates would be allocated as follows:
- Socialist Party, 84 MPs, 10 more than 2021.
- Together we win, 34 MPs. This subject includes the Freedom Party, the former LSI led by Ilir Meta, and the part of those who left the Democratic Party to join the so-called Foltorja of former president Mr. Sali Berisha. This coalition includes also Vangjel Dule’s Union Party for Human Rights and Nard Ndoka’s Christian Democratic Party. A typical comparison with 2021 is not possible for this subject.
- The Official Democratic Party with the votes received in the May 2023 elections would only get 11 MPs in the 2025 elections according to our projection.
- The Social Democratic Party led by Tom Doshi would receive 9 mandates according to the projection, i.e. 6 more mandates than in 2021.
- Even Agron Duka’s Agrarian Environmentalist Party would get 2 mandates.
- Other parties, even though they have a significant number of votes, would not receive any mandates in the 2025 Elections. If the 2025 election results would be similar to those of May 14th, Arlind Qori of Together Movement and Endri Shabani of Hashtag Initiative would remain outside the assembly.
- There are 282 850 votes received from other parties that would not get any MPs in 2025, if the system, conditions and numbers are the same as in May 14.
- Two hundred and eighty-two thousand eight hundred and fifty voters are equal to 29 MPs if we consider 9,600 votes as an average vote per mandate (total valid votes 1,344,275 divided by 140 mandates).
- The entrance into parliament of young or smaller parties in a regional proportional electoral system with the formula provided by the Electoral Code in force would have been impossible. The only benefit for the smaller parties, if they jointly manage to get 282 850 votes, is their right to be financed by the State Budget as a political party if they pass the national threshold of 1 percent or get 10 thousand votes in total. See Treasury transactions
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
The paradox lies in the formula favoring the larger parties. If we look at the voting result and mandates in the 2021 Election (when there were only 12 electoral subjects on the list) and project the 2025 elections based on the May 14 votes, and considering the 40 competing subjects already, we would obtain a disproportionate ratio between the number of votes and the number of MPs.
Reading the SP electoral results, we understand that although it has lost 188,558 voters or 24.5% of the voters of 2021, this electoral subject keeps increasing its number of MPs as long as the current formula and electoral structure are applied. So, this electoral subject would get 10 MPs or 13.5% more mandates.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
The MP structure by districts calculated by Open Data Albana team as a Hypothetical Projection based on the results of May 14, 2023.
Tirana has 36 MPs, allocated as followsw: 21 SP, 10 Together We Win, 3 DP, and 2 SDP. The Hashtag Initiative (E. Shabani) and Together Movement (A. Qori), on the other hand, would not manage to become MPs with the same situation in place, even though they did manage to get the mandates for several members in the Municipal Council.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
The Socialist Party would receive 11 MPs in the region of Fier, the coalition Together We Win would receive 3 mandates, while the Democratic Party and the Social Democratic Party would receive one each.
In the district of Durrës, 8 MPs would go to the Socialist Party, 4 to the coalition Together We Win, while one mandate each to the Democratic Party and the Agrarian Environmentalist Party of Albania.
The mandates of MPs in the region of Elbasan are projected as follows: 9 for the Socialist Party, 3 for the Together We Win Coalition and 2 for the Democratic Party.
The Socialist Party in Vlora would secure eight MPs, against 3 of the Together We Win Coalition and 1 of the Democratic Party.
In Korça, the Socialist Party would win 8 MP mandates, while the Together We Win Coalition would win 2 mandates and the Democratic Party only 1.
With the Democratic Party divided into two competing subjects (the official one and the so-called Foltore of Together We Win), even Shkodra would give an advantage to the Socialist Party with more MPs than its opponent(s). The region would be divided into 4 mandates for SP; 3 for the Together We Win Coalition and 3 mandates for Tom Doshi’s Party, the Social-Democratic Party. The Official Democratic Party would remain with one MP for this region.
Lezha Region: 3 for SP; 2 for Together We Win and 2 for Tom Doshi’s PSD.
In the district of Berat, 5 mandates would go to the Socialist Party. The coalition Together We Win and the Official Democratic Party would win 1 mandate each.
The Socialist Party would secure 3 mandates in the region of Dibra, while one mandate only would go to the coalition Together We Win. The Social Democratic Party would also win one mandate.
MP mandates in Gjirokastra : 3 for the Socialist Party and only 1 for the coalition Together We Win.
In the region of Kukës, the Socialist Party and the coalition Together We Win would win 1 mandate each. In addition, the Agrarian Party of Albania would also secure one parliamentary mandate.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
The Socialist Party with the votes received in the elections of May 14, 2023, would secure 3 more MPs in the district of Tirana, 2 more in Korça and Fier, as well as 1 more mandate in the region of Shkodra, Elbasan and Dibra. than in 2021. In total, there would be 84 MP mandates from 74 in 2021.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
We are making a hypothetical comparison of the Opposition camp by grouping them as follows:
- in 2021, DP with the Alliance for Change and SMI.
- in 2023, the Opposition consisting of Together We Win, the Official Democratic Party and the Environmentalist Agrarian Party.
Simple math shows that this Opposition (or opposition spectrum), would result as follows even if we would just count the votes of each of the opposition subjects jointly, without a pre-electoral unification :
- A loss of 4 mandates in the region of Tirana.
- Meanwhile, 3 MPs less in the region of Fier (compared to mandates in 2021);
- Loss of 2 MPs each in the regions of Shkodra, Lezha, Dibra and Korça.
- The opposition would win one less mandate in the region of Elbasan.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
The Social Democratic Party would secure one more MP in the Shkodra region, namely 3 (translated from the votes of the 2023 local elections) from 2 mandates in 2021. SDP would also receive one more MP in the region of Tirana, namely 2 from 1 in 2021. SDP would win with the votes of the elections of May 14, 2023, 2 mandates in Lezha, and one each in Dibra and Fier, the regions where it did not hold any mandates so far.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Comparison of Political Party Votes. We have made a comparison of the votes won in the general elections of 2021 with the local elections of 2023 for purposes of projecting voting results for the 2025 Parliamentary Elections.
The Socialist Party won about 24.5% less votes in the elections of May 14, 2023 than in those of April 25, 2021. Accordingly, SP in 2021 counted 768,134 votes, while in 2023, 579,576 votes. In percentage terms, SP received 48.67% of the valid votes in 2021, while in 2023, about 43.11%. The decrease in votes is about 5.56 percentage points.
The comparison for the opposition is based on the 2021 coalition between the Democratic Party and its allies. For 2021, we collected the votes of the Democratic Party – Alliance for Change and those of the Socialist Movement for Integration Party. For purposes of comparison, the 2023 votes of the Together We Win Coalition are counted jointly with those of Official Democratic Party, the Agrarian Environmentalist Party, the Republican Party, the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity Party, the Legality Movement Party, the Progressive Alliance L.ZH.K, the New Democratic Spirit, the National Front Party, and the Christian Democratic Party.
Thus, we have the same basis of comparison. Jointly, these parties managed to get 731,671 votes in 2021, while in 2023, they got 535,415 votes, a decrease of 26.6%.
So, we have a decrease from 46.31% of the total votes in 2021 to 39.8% of the votes in 2023, a decrease of 6.48 percentage points. In order to make comparisons as accurate as possible, the difference in percentage points should be obtained, because in this case the same basis of comparison is maintained.
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
The Socialist Party has recorded an increase in the number of votes from 2013, in 2017 and in 2021. In the last local elections (2023), there was a decrease of about 188 thousand votes. If the same number of voters in total is maintained even for the SP in 2025, then the average number of votes per MP of the Socialist Party would drop from 10,380 votes per MP in 2021 to 6,900 votes per mandate in 2025. So, it takes SP now less votes to get its mandates.
Open Data Albania is comparing the same vote result to see how it would be translated into Mandates for Electoral Subjects if the country would have a National, instead of a Regional Electoral System, having explained above how such (current) system leads to distorting representation.
If the SP would get 579,576 votes, but the country would have a National Competition and not a Regional system, although the same formula is maintained (which applies to the whole country and not to each result in the District) the SP would only get 67 MPs. So less than 50% of the number of MPs in the Assembly.
In this case, votes for new and small parties (which get a total of 18 MPs) become more effective. A National Competition system does not lead to votes not being read or votes being distorted, and it ensures a better ratio of representation.
With the votes of 2023 and with a national proportional system, the Together We Win coalition would secure only 28 MPs, suffering a loss of 6 MPs from the regional competition system.
The Official Democratic Party would receive one more mandate if the national proportional system were to be applied, namely 12 from the 11 projected for 2025.
Progress in a System with National Competition would be also marked Tom Doshi’s Party, which would get 10 MPs for sure. The Agrarian Environmentalist Party would get 5 MPs. These five parties would remain parliamentary parties with both types of electoral systems, but with different numbers of mandates.
With the Proportional Electoral system with a national competition, there would be 10 (ten) more parliamentary parties, including the Republican Party and the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity with 3 MPs each, the Legality Movement Party, the Progressive Alliance (L.ZH.K), the Social Democracy Party, and the New Democratic Spirit with 2 mandates each, as well as the Right Liberal Alliance, the Green Party, the National Arbnor Alliance, and Hashtag Initiative would get one MP each.
These calculations were made based on the National Proportional Electoral system, without a 1% national threshold (given that such threshold was removed by the decision of the Constitutional Court dated 04.10.2021 Elton Debreshi case).
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Source: KQZ
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Articles with analysis and data on Electoral Results and Processes can be found on the Open Data Albania website, Electoral Processes category.
This article is the product of the work of the Open Data Albania team as part of the publications within the implementation of the Open Data Project, Access and Transparency over Sectors exposed to Risk of Corruption.
Download excel: Projection of Mandate distribution for MPs in the 2025 elections based on data results for Subjects of the May 14 Electoral Process
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Contributed by: Ilir Brasha and Aranita Brahaj
Data Entry and Visualizations: L. Bushi dhe K. Hoxholli
Translated by: Etleva Pushi
