The organization AIS / Open Data Albania has drafted the monitoring and evidence-based report “Public Procurement in Election Years: Statistical Evidence and Risk Analysis 2015–2025”. The study examines the behavior of public procurement over a decade and highlights the connection between electoral processes and indicators of volume, competition, integrity and risk in public tendering. The analysis is based on official data from the Electronic Procurement System and the risk assessment methodology of the Open Procurement Albania platform.
The findings reveal that election years, along with a time-period preceding them, are associated with a significant increase in the value of public procurement, higher level of procedures with single bidders, greater concentration of public funds and an increase in tenders with indicators of risk (“red flag”). The report presents statistical evidence, integrity analysis and recommendations for strengthening monitoring, transparency and accountability in public procurement.
AIS has a long experience in monitoring public procurement via tools and software solutions who facilitate access, transparency and analysis of public spending, having developed open data platforms and risk assessment instruments in tendering.
The analysis is built on the methodology of assessing risk indicators and identifying “red flags”, developed within the Open Procurement Albania platform, a software solution created by experts and volunteers of AIS / Open Data Albania. The platform provides data, documents and algorithms, capable of analyzing all tenders of 61 municipalities (local government units) from 2015 to 2026 and subsequently. The donor supporting this platform throughout the years is the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).
This Monitoring Report and the Evidence Paper section were produced by the AIS Organization. Any conclusion, recommendation, opinion or formulation presented in this document represents the views and assessments made by the authors and is not attributed to the entity that supports the work and the project through the donation.
The tabular data used in this report can be accessed, in the Open Data version, in our database Data.al, inserting the term #ProkurimPublikZgjedhje #PublicProcurementElection in the search box.
Conclusions
Volume of Public Procurement based on Election Chronology
- In the year proceeding the elections, the value of public procurement increases significantly, marking an average of about 142% increase compared to the previous year (2024 vs 2023). On average, over the last ten years, the year preceding Parliamentary elections (2024) presents about 1.7 times in activity volume in public procurement, compared to the year before.
- Both the number of tenders and the average value per tender reveal a steady increase during the period proceeding the election year. In the run-up to the election processes, public authorities announce and initiate a greater number of procurement procedures, significantly increasing the funds committed to public projects during this period.
- Same year the election is announced often seems concurrent with a higher level of public procurement spending at the national level (e.g. 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024). The whole year is characterized by a significant increase in the value of the estimated funds procured.
- In 2024, which preceded Parliamentary elections, the total value of the estimated fund procured reached around ALL 375 billion. The later represents a gap of around ALL 220 billion compared to 2023, or approximately a 142% jump, compared to the previous year. Likewise, this figure is significantly higher than the value of procurements in 2025, with a difference of about ALL 216 billion.
Competition, Concentration and Financial Efficiency. Deterioration in election years – years of reconfirmation of the ruling political force
- The portion of tenders with a single bidder increased. The value of the estimated fund procured in tendering procedures with only one bidder. in the same year that elections were held, is higher than the value procured when no election took place. The lack of competition and the presence of tendering procedures with only one bidder constitute a risk element for Clientelism in tendering.
- In election years, the average value of the estimated fund for tenders with a single bidder constituted about 15.2% of the total value procured, while in non-election years the average was lower, about 14%.
- In the case of Albania for the 2015–2025 period, the election year is also the year that the ruling majority (Parliament and Local Government) was reconfirmed in power.
- In the election year 2025 (year of reconfirmation of the ruling majority), the value of the estimated fund for tenders with only one bidder (with increased risk of clientelism) marked 17.69% of the total estimated fund tendered. This is higher than 12.76% in the previous year.
- The estimated fund for negotiated procedures in election years (years of reconfirmation of the ruling majority) appears higher than in non-election years.
- Low financial efficiency in tendering (the difference between the estimated fund and the value of the winning bid) is less than 5%. In election years, financial efficiency in tendering appears at a more deteriorated level. The estimated fund for procedures with low or absent efficiency in tendering in election years is about 37.5% of the total limit fund. In other years this value has an average of about 31%.
- The year 2017 (election year) presents the most deteriorated level of low and absent financial efficiency in tendering, as 62% of the value of the tendered estimated fund is not partnered with financial efficiency, and the value of the bid is very close to the estimated fund, indicating limited or worse, completely absent competition.
- Concentration of the procured value in the 30 largest procedures in a handful of sucesfull biders: on election years, 12.3% of the total estimated value tendered is concentrated on a small number of sucesfull biders for the 30 procedures with the highest value. This is on average 3.8% higher than in non-election years.
Risk Assessment in Tendering Algorithm based on the Open Procurement Albania Methodology. Tendering records from 61 Local Government Units (Municipalities).
Public Procurement in Election Years – Methodology for the Analysis of “Red Flag” Risk Indicators in Local Government
In Albania, one of the mechanisms for monitoring risk in public procurement is the Open Procurement Albania (OPA) platform, developed by the AIS / Open Data Albania organization. The platform monitors procurement procedures published in the Electronic Procurement System (SPE) and Public Procurement Bulletins, identifying potential risk elements. The risk assessment is automated, having applied an intelligent automated algorithm and digitized access through well-structured data, on a platform whose programming is based on the Open Contracting publication standards.
After structuring information for each tendering procedure, the algorithm creates an assessment of tenders at risk for lack of competition and clientelism, identifying and marking such procedures with a “red flag”.
In the methodology used by Open Procurement Albania, the main risk indicators include:
- lack of competition (procedures with only one bidder);
- type of procedure used (negotiated procedure);
- disqualification of the most favorable bids and/or all competing operators except the successful bidder;
- time constraints in preparing the bid documentation;
- frequent cancellations (two or more times).
These indicators are also in line with the practices used by international organizations such as OECD, SIGMA and Open Contracting Partnership, where certain procedures are considered to pose a higher risk to effective competition and the integrity of public procurement. They are also indications of irregularities during the procurement process.
In practice, these indicators do not automatically imply irregularities or legal violations but identify procedures that present a higher probability of risk and that require a higher level of institutional monitoring and transparency. Thus, the OPA platform marks with a red flag any tender/procurement procedure in case one or more of the above indicators appear during the procurement process.
- In 2025 (election year), 51% of the estimated fund procured by local government units (municipalities) concurred with tenders marked with a “red flag”. A red flag is set when the competition has only one bidder, the tender is canceled more than twice, and all participating bids with an economic bid value lower than the winning bid are disqualified.
- This indicator is even more problematic for Municipalities or Local Government Units in earlier election years.
- More specifically, in 2023, same year that the local elections were held, turns out that 54.3% of the estimated fund tendered concurred with tenders marked by the Open Procurement Albania algorithm with at least 1 red flag.
- In 2019, another local election year (for municipalities), the value of the estimated fund for tenders with risk and red flag from Open Procurement Albania amounted to 40.9% of the total estimated fund procured by municipalities that year.
- It is evident in some years that, while “red flag” procedures represent about a quarter or a third of the total procedures in number, the estimated fund attached to them amounts to over 45%–50% of the total estimated fund. This suggests a relatively higher concentration of risk in procedures with greater financial value.
In the last two elections, in 2023 (local elections) and 2025 (parliamentary elections), the estimated fund tendered by Municipalities, which was marked with “red flag”, amounted to over half of the total estimated fund procured that year.
Open Procurement Albania is a platform or software solution created by experts and volunteers of the AIS organization, known as Open Data Albania. This platform has full information, data, documents, algorithms and risk assessments for all tenders of 61 Municipalities (local government units) from 2015 to 2026 and onwards. Open Procurement Albania is the most innovative product of risk assessment in tendering through digital intelligence and automation of tender information. The donor of this platform throughout the years is the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).
The organization is seeking to expand its collaboration with organizations, people and donors, with the aim to offer more digitalization and application of artificial intelligence to track and minimize the risk of corruption and mismanagement.
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