The amount of debt per capita in the years 2010-2013

As one of the most important indicators, which helps in judging the solvency of a country to repay its debt, “the amount of debt per capita” presents a particular interest to take into consideration. It is calculated as the ratio of total public debt issued and still outstanding to the number of population in a given year and is one of the main elements that determines the risk and the interest rate of securities. For this reason, Open Data Albania, has analyzed the performance of this indicator for 2010-2013 .

^{Source: Ministry of Finance , INSTAT
Processing and comments: ODA}

As can be seen from the graph, “debt per capita” has experienced a not slow rate of growth. The biggest growth has been experienced in 2011, compared with 2010, with about 22.27 %. It should be stressed that this huge increase has come mainly from the decrease in population reported by INSTAT with the results of the 2011 Census, which resulted 27.11 % lower than in 2010. However, increasing the stock of debt 57.2 billion or 8 % more, has also given its impact on the achievement of the level of debt per capita from 223,949 ALL in 2010 to 273,831 in 2011 ALL. This has been the only year in which the increase of “the debt per capita” is explained mainly by the variable population, because in the following years, the stock of debt is the dominant factor.

^{Source: Ministry of Finance , INSTAT
Processing and comments: ODA}

In 2012, the debt per capita is estimated at around 287,648 million ALL,
it referred to the predictions made by the Ministry of Finance on
August 1, 2012 , for the expected level of debt stock by the end of the
year. In fact, it is unlikely for the debt per capita to remain at this
level since in September 30, 2012, the Ministry of Finance reports a 9
-month stock of debt of 814 billion ALL , which is approximately 99.79 %
of the stock of debt that should result by the end of the year.

In 2013, the stock of debt is projected to go in about 895.7 billion. If we assume an average population growth from year to year by 0.5 % , then, the debt per capita in 2013 will be about 314,271 ALL or about 9.8 % more than in 2012. In these conditions, an average Albanian family of 4 persons, for 2013 carries a debt of 1,257,084 ALL. But meanwhile, we must not forget that not all the population contributes to the fees and taxes in the state budget. This means that the “debt for taxpayers” or people who will actually pay it, is still higher.

1. ^{If you are interested in the performance of this indicator since 2000, you can read more here:}
2. ^{http://open.data.al/sq/lajme/lajm/lang/sq/id/532/Shuma-e-borxhit-per-fryme-ne-vitet-2000-2012}
3. ^{The data for the interests during 2010-2011 are taken from the Ministry of Finance’s Reports ?Treguesit fiskal sipas buxhetit të konsoliduar?:}
4. ^{Year 2010: http://www.minfin.gov.al/minfin/pub/treguesit_fiskal_14_12_m_2010_23_05_2011_2228_1.pdf}
5. ^{Year 2011: http://www.minfin.gov.al/minfin/pub/12_2011_treg_fiskalk_6_dt_28_05_2012xls_3445_1.pdf}
6. ^{The data for the interests during year 2012 are taken from “The report of the Project budget 2013” pg 50}
7. ^{The data for the interests in year 2013 are taken from “Budget 2013”. The data on the number population during 2010-2011 are obtained from INSTAT while data on the population for 2012-2013 is a calculation of ODA.}