{"id":19809,"date":"2023-01-16T06:29:09","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T06:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=19809"},"modified":"2024-05-04T09:19:36","modified_gmt":"2024-05-04T09:19:36","slug":"projeksion-shperndarje-mandate-deputeti-vota-2021-hipotetike-konkurrim-kombetar-dhe-konkurrim-ku-lejohet-bashkepunim-parazgjedhor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=19809","title":{"rendered":"Projeksion. Shp\u00ebrndarje Mandate Deputeti vota 2021, hipotetike konkurrim Komb\u00ebtar dhe Konkurrim ku lejohet bashk\u00ebpunim parazgjedhor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>N\u00eb ket\u00eb artikull do t\u00eb punojm\u00eb me dy projeksione mbi rezultate zgjedhore 2021. P\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht, ndarje mandatesh p\u00ebr deputet duke konsideruar dhe krahasuar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Varianti A<\/strong>: Mandate Aktuale me Konkurrim Rajonal kundrejt Rastit Hipotetik n\u00ebse do t\u00eb kishim rregullim ligjor p\u00ebr Konkurrim Komb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Varianti B<\/strong>: Mandate Aktuale me Konkurrim Rajonal dhe rregullimet e reja ligjore kundrejt Projeksion mandate me Konkurrim Rajonal por me lejim t\u00eb listave t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta p\u00ebr subjektet brenda koalicioneve (pra me koalicione para-zgjedhore). Shkurtimisht, Mandate me Kodin Zgjedhor 2021 vs Mandate me Kodin Zgjedhor n\u00eb fuqi 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"664\" height=\"371\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=1725091543&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nTabela: Rezultatet zgjedhore 2021, vota sipas subjekteve ne total<br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"371\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=77774985&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha rastet projeksionet jan\u00eb realizuar bazuar n\u00eb votat e siguruara nga subjektet politike n\u00eb vitin 2021. P\u00ebrllogaritja e numrit t\u00eb deputet\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb kryer bazuar n\u00eb nenin 162 t\u00eb Kodit Zgjedhor, t\u00eb ndryshuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Varianti A: <\/strong><strong>Sistem Proporcional me Konkurrim Rajonal vs me Konkurrim Komb\u00ebtar.<\/strong> Open Data Albania ka realizuar nj\u00eb krahasim t\u00eb sistemit proporcional me konkurrim rajonal (12 zona zgjedhore q\u00eb p\u00ebrkojn\u00eb me 12 qarqe) dhe t\u00eb sistemit proporcional me konkurrim komb\u00ebtar (1 zon\u00eb zgjedhore q\u00eb p\u00ebrkon me t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Republik\u00ebn e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Me sistemin aktual, at\u00eb proporcional me konkurrim rajonal, n\u00eb vitin 2021, Partia Socialiste (Edi Rama) ka fituar 74 mandate, Partia Demokratike \u2013 Aleanca p\u00ebr Ndryshim (Lulzim Basha) ka siguruar 59 mandate deputet\u00ebsh. Kat\u00ebr mandate deputet\u00ebsh kan\u00eb shkuar p\u00ebr ish-L\u00ebvizjen Socialiste p\u00ebr Integrim (Monika Kryemadhi) dhe tre p\u00ebr Partin\u00eb Social Demokrate (Tom Doshi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00ebse p\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin num\u00ebr votash por tanim\u00eb llogaritjen e mandateve e b\u00ebjm\u00eb me nj\u00eb zon\u00eb zgjedhore, pra me sistem proporcional komb\u00ebtar, rezulton se PS do t\u00eb fitonte 3 deputet\u00eb m\u00eb pak, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht 71 (p\u00ebrs\u00ebri mazhoranc\u00ebn). Dy deputet\u00eb do t\u00eb humbiste edhe koalicioni i PD-AN, duke e \u00e7uar numrin e deputet\u00ebve t\u00eb saj n\u00eb 57. Partia LSI\/PL do siguronte me sistem proporcional me konkurrim komb\u00ebtar 9 mandate n\u00eb vitin 2021 dhe jo 4 sa siguroi. P\u00ebr Partin\u00eb Social-Demokrate nuk do kishte ndryshim t\u00eb numrit t\u00eb mandateve edhe me llogaritjen e re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rasti i zgjedhjeve t\u00eb vitit 2021, nuk do t\u00eb ndikohej nga pragu komb\u00ebtar i votimit prej 1%, q\u00eb n\u00eb fakt me <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aksesdrejtesi.al\/search?_token=TZjgQ2KOj6XviBvrdHY6CB3qpHSkahYNfrLGKZjp&amp;tip_info=&amp;ins=&amp;personi=&amp;media=&amp;organizate=&amp;fjal_k=nr.+31+dat%C3%AB+04.10.2021&amp;date=&amp;date1=\">vendimin<\/a> nr. 31 t\u00eb Gjykat\u00ebs Kushtetuese dat\u00eb 04.10.2021 \u00ebsht\u00eb shfuqizuar. Pragu 1% nuk lejonte subjektet politike q\u00eb t\u00eb fitonin mandat deputeti n\u00ebse nuk kishin siguruar 1% t\u00eb votave n\u00eb rang vendi, edhe pse mund t\u00eb kishin arritur her\u00ebsin brenda qarkut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"418\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=15226416&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Varianti B<\/strong><strong>: Kodi Zgjedhor 2021 vs Kodi Zgjedhor 2017, Rezultate Zgjedhore 2021.<\/strong> Nj\u00eb krahasim tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodhte n\u00ebse do t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb fuqi sistemi pa rregullimet ligjore t\u00eb realizuara n\u00eb vitin 2020 dhe 2021. N\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb se Partia Demokratike do t\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunonte n\u00eb koalicion me LSI, pra t\u00eb kishte koalicion t\u00eb Partia Demokratike-Aleanca p\u00ebr Ndryshim (Lulzim Basha) dhe LSI (Monika Kryemadhi), por me lista t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta shum\u00eb-em\u00ebrore, rezulton se numri i mandateve t\u00eb fituara ndryshon. Jan\u00eb kat\u00ebr qarqe t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb ndikonin tek rezultati p\u00ebrfundimtar, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht Vlora, Gjirokastra, Berati dhe Durr\u00ebsi. N\u00eb k\u00ebto kat\u00ebr qarqe bashk\u00ebpunimi i PD-AN duke bashk\u00ebpunuar n\u00eb koalicion parazgjedhor me LSI do t\u2019u jepte atyre kat\u00ebr deputet\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si p\u00ebrfundim PS nuk do t\u00eb merrte n\u00eb Vlor\u00eb 8 mandate por 7, n\u00eb Gjirokast\u00ebr 2 dhe jo 3 mandate. Po nj\u00ebsoj n\u00eb Berat PS do t\u00eb fitonte 4 mandate dhe jo 5, si dhe n\u00eb Durr\u00ebs do shkonin 7 mandate p\u00ebr PS dhe jo 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u00ebto mandate t\u00eb humbura nga PS do t\u00eb shkonin p\u00ebr koalicionin midis PD-AN dhe ish-LSI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00eb finale PS nuk do t\u00eb kishte shumic\u00ebn e thjesht\u00eb prej 71 deputet\u00ebsh e vetme, por do fitonte 70 deputet\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa bashk\u00ebpunimi PD-AN do t\u00eb siguronte 67 deputet\u00eb nga 63 aktualisht. Ndarja brenda koalicionit tregon q\u00eb 2 nga deputet\u00ebt shtes\u00eb do t\u00eb shkonin p\u00ebr PD-AN, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht n\u00eb Vlor\u00eb dhe Gjirokast\u00ebr, kurse 2 deputet\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb p\u00ebr ish-LSI, n\u00eb Berat dhe Durr\u00ebs. Tre mandatet e PSD nuk do t\u00eb ndikoheshin. PS nuk do t\u00eb mundej q\u00eb t\u00eb formonte qeverin\u00eb e vetme, prandaj do duhej q\u00eb t\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunonte edhe me nj\u00eb parti tjet\u00ebr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"410\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=245966667&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"436\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=937283362&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"795\" height=\"478\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=1771597935&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"406\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=1321620879&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: KQZ<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"436\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vT1fk189EdKJafxlyeJDHsaXw-KIagrpUL3azkyvIqBgUeQrdv01ZKnHFkBIV5que-rq9KPjAO5sVdx\/pubchart?oid=1570431705&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nBurimi: Open Spending Albania<br>\nKomente dhe Analiza: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Publikime t\u00eb tjera mbi Rezultate Zgjedhore si dhe analiza t\u00eb Partive Politike dhe aspekteve t\u00eb tjera mund t\u00eb gjeni n\u00eb Webfaqen e Open Data Albania me tematik\u00ebn <a href=\"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?cat=491\">Procese Zgjedhore<\/a> dhe <a href=\"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?cat=49\">Shpenzime Elektorale<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<b>Shkarko excel:<\/b> N\u00ebse d\u00ebshironi t\u00eb aksesoni excel ose dataset q\u00eb shoq\u00ebron k\u00ebt\u00eb artikull ju lutem na shkruani ne emailin <a href=\"info@ais.al\">info@ais.al<\/a><br>\n<b>Komente dhe Analiza:<\/b> Open Data Albania<br>\n<b>Kontribuoi: <\/b>Ilir Brasha\n<style>\np{\ntext-align: justify !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00eb ket\u00eb artikull do t\u00eb punojm\u00eb me dy projeksione mbi rezultate zgjedhore 2021. P\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht, ndarje mandatesh p\u00ebr deputet duke konsideruar dhe krahasuar: Varianti A: Mandate Aktuale me Konkurrim Rajonal kundrejt Rastit Hipotetik n\u00ebse do t\u00eb kishim rregullim ligjor p\u00ebr Konkurrim Komb\u00ebtar. Varianti B: Mandate Aktuale me Konkurrim Rajonal dhe rregullimet e reja ligjore kundrejt Projeksion mandate me Konkurrim Rajonal por me lejim t\u00eb listave t\u00eb&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19812,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[39,491],"tags":[2964,7432,7429,7430,4545,7428,3056,3060,3515,5728,4771,4143,7431,7433,7434,3083],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/ndiqparate.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Data.Al_-Mandate-Zgjedhje-te-Pergjithshme-2021-sipas-Partive-Politike-Kodi-Zgjedhor-me-rregullimet-ligjore-aktuale-vs-pa-rregullime-Kodi-Zgjedhor-2021-vs-2017.png?fit=600%2C410&ssl=1","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":22167,"url":"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=22167","url_meta":{"origin":19809,"position":0},"title":"Partit\u00eb Politike, Vler\u00ebsimi i Sistemit Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Integritetit 2023","date":"May 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb artikull po zbardhim rezultate dhe rekomandime p\u00ebr Partit\u00eb Politike, t\u00eb b\u00ebra n\u00eb Raportin Vler\u00ebsimi i Sistemit Komb\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb Integritetit. 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Z. Oerd Bylykbashi; 2. Z. Flamur Noka; 3. Znj. Sorina Koti; 4. Znj. Elda Hoti; 5. Znj. Elda Hoti; 6. Z. 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