{"id":19914,"date":"2023-08-28T09:07:07","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T09:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=19914"},"modified":"2024-05-04T09:26:40","modified_gmt":"2024-05-04T09:26:40","slug":"projection-members-of-the-parliament-mandate-distribution-election-2021-hypothetical-national-proportional-race-with-pre-election-coalitions-allowed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=19914&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"Projection: Members of the Parliament mandate distribution, Election 2021, hypothetical national proportional race, with pre-election coalitions allowed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this article, we will work on two hypothetical projections using the 2021 election results. More specifically, regarding the allocation of the MP mandates, considering and juxtaposing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Option <\/strong><strong>A:<\/strong> Current distribution of MP Mandates, using the Proportional Regional system versus the Hypothetical Scenario of a National Proportional system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Option B:<\/strong> Current Mandate distribution through the with Proportional Regional system and the new legal stipulations versus a projection in which recent stipulations did not exist, allowing for separate candidates for subjects participating in coalitions (I.e with allowed pre-election coalitions). In brief, MP\u2019s mandate distribution as it happened in the 2021 Election vs. Potential Mandate distribution using as reference the old 2017 Electoral Code.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"664\" height=\"371\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=1725091543&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe><br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: KQZ<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"371\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=77774985&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: KQZ<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In all cases, the projections were based on the ballots secured by political entities in 2021. The calculation of the number of MP\u2019s was carried out based on article 162 of the Electoral Code, as amended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Option <\/strong><strong>A: <\/strong><strong>Proportional Regional <\/strong><strong>Electoral <\/strong><strong>System vs National <\/strong><strong>Proportional Electoral System<\/strong><strong>. <\/strong>Open Data Albania has carried out a comparison of the proportional regional system of election (12 electoral areas, that coincide with 12 districts) and the national proportional system of election (1 electoral zone that coincides with the entire Republic of Albania).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the current system, the regional proportional system of competition, in 2021, the Socialist Party (Edi Rama) won 74 mandates, the Democratic Party &#8211; Alliance for Change (Lulzim Basha) secured 59 MP&#8217;s. Four parliamentary mandates went to the former Socialist Movement for Integration (Monika Kryemadhi) and three to the Social Democratic Party (Tom Doshi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we use the same number of votes and calculate the parliamentary seats using one electoral district, that is, with a national proportional system, it merges that the SP would win 3 MP\u2019s less, namely 71 (again the majority). The DP-AC coalition would also lose two MP\u2019s, bringing the number of its representatives to 57. The SMI\/LP would secure 9 MP mandates in 2021 and not the 4 it did with a proportional system with national competition. For the Social Democratic Party, there would be no change in the number of mandates even with the new calculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The case of the 2021 elections would not be affected by the national voting threshold of 1%, which in fact with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aksesdrejtesi.al\/search?_token=TZjgQ2KOj6XviBvrdHY6CB3qpHSkahYNfrLGKZjp&amp;tip_info=&amp;ins=&amp;personi=&amp;media=&amp;organizate=&amp;fjal_k=nr.+31+dat%C3%AB+04.10.2021&amp;date=&amp;date1=\">decision<\/a> nr. 31 of the Constitutional Court, dated 04.10.2021, was repealed. The 1% threshold did not allow political entities to win a deputy mandate if they did not secure 1% of the votes at the country level, even though they could have reached the quotient within the district.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"418\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=15226416&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: KQZ<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Option <\/strong><strong>B<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><strong>Electoral Code 2021 vs Electoral Code 2017, Elect<\/strong><strong>ion <\/strong><strong>Results 2021<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong> Another option to be considered is&nbsp; what would happen if the same old election system would be in force without the legal adjustments implemented in 2020 and 2021. If we assume that the Democratic Party would cooperate, by forming a coalition, with the SMI, that is, a coalition between the Democratic Party-Alliance for Change (Lulzim Basha) and SMI (Monika Kryemadhi), but with separate MP candidate lists, it emerges that the number of mandates won differs. There are four districts whose results would affect the final lection outcome, namely Vlora, Gjirokastra, Berati and Durr\u00ebs. In these four districts, the cooperation between PD-AN by way of a pre-election coalition with SMI, would grant them four additional MP\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In conclusion, SP would not win 8 mandates in Vlore, but 7; more specifically, in Gjirokast\u00ebr there would be 2 and not 3 mandates. Similarly, in Berat, the SP would win 4 mandates and not 5, as well as in Durr\u00ebs, only 7 mandates would go to the SP and not 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These mandates lost by SP would go in favour to the coalition between PD-AN and the former SMI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the end, the Socialist Party would not have a simple majority of 71 MPs all on her own, but would win 70 MP\u2019s. Whereas, the PD-AN coalition would provide for 67 MP\u2019s instead of the current 63. The division within the coalition shows that 2 of the additional MP\u2019s would go for PD-AN, namely in Vlora and Gjirokast\u00ebr and the other 2in favour of the former SMI, in Berat and Durr\u00ebs specifically. SDP&#8217;s three mandates would not be affected. The SP would not be able to form the government on her own, therefore, it would have to cooperate with another party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"410\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=245966667&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: Open Spending Albania<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"436\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=937283362&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: Open Spending Albania<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"795\" height=\"478\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=1771597935&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: Open Spending Albania<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"406\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=1321620879&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: Open Spending Albania<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"436\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzplpOp2dEfS5QqAR0_FgauInHuiNfKp1qu2p4ne4I0mtmRJjp2W5mPlrwPi6WNvokBA47qC7QhBLX\/pubchart?oid=1570431705&amp;format=interactive\"><\/iframe>\n<br>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;\"><small><br>\nSource: Open Spending Albania<br>\nComments and Analysis: Open Data Albania <\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other publications regarding Election Results, as well an overview of the Political Parties and other aspects can be found on the Open Data Albania website with the topics <a href=\"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?cat=491\">Election Processes<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?cat=49\">Election Expenditures<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<b>Download excel:<\/b> If you want to access the excel or dataset that accompanies this article, please write to us at <a href=\"info@ais.al\">info@ais.al<\/a><br>\n<b>Comments and Analyses:<\/b> Open Data Albania<br>\n<b>Contributed by:<\/b> Ilir Brasha <br>\n<b>Translated by:<\/b> Rezarta Cushaj\n<style>\np{\ntext-align: justify !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this article, we will work on two hypothetical projections using the 2021 election results. More specifically, regarding the allocation of the MP mandates, considering and juxtaposing: Option A: Current distribution of MP Mandates, using the Proportional Regional system versus the Hypothetical Scenario of a National Proportional system. Option B: Current Mandate distribution through the with Proportional Regional system and the new legal stipulations versus&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19812,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[493,57],"tags":[4888,2964,7662,7663,7664,7665,7659,5737,3056,3060,7660,7661,5750,4550,4886,3083],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/ndiqparate.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Data.Al_-Mandate-Zgjedhje-te-Pergjithshme-2021-sipas-Partive-Politike-Kodi-Zgjedhor-me-rregullimet-ligjore-aktuale-vs-pa-rregullime-Kodi-Zgjedhor-2021-vs-2017.png?fit=600%2C410&ssl=1","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24123,"url":"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=24123&lang=en","url_meta":{"origin":19914,"position":0},"title":"ELECTORAL PROCESS ALBANIA 2025. 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