{"id":6572,"date":"2012-06-25T10:21:39","date_gmt":"2012-06-25T10:21:39","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2012-06-25T10:21:39","modified_gmt":"2012-06-25T10:21:39","slug":"lajm-i-mire-dhe-lajm-i-keq-per-ekonomine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=6572","title":{"rendered":"Lajm i mir\u00eb dhe lajm i keq p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
Me nivelin e borxhit publik t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe presioneve t\u00eb financimit, shumica e vendeve n\u00eb rajon duhet t\u00eb adoptojn\u00eb programe t\u00eb gjera konsolidimi fiskal, p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar dinamik\u00ebn negative t\u00eb borxhit dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur problemin e financimit n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen <\/p>\n

Nuk kishte ndodhur ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, por \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb: P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb 15 vitet e fundit institucioni i Bretton Woods emeton nj\u00eb raport p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb e vendeve t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Juglindore, ku shkruhet e zeza mbi t\u00eb bardh\u00eb: Lajm i mir\u00eb dhe lajm i keq! Ishte i dyti raport i k\u00ebtij institucioni pas atij t\u00eb publikuar n\u00eb 15 n\u00ebntor t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar<\/p>\n

Ekspert\u00ebt nuk kan\u00eb hezituar ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb autopsin\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb 6 vendeve t\u00eb rajonit. Lajmi kaloi p\u00ebrciptazi dhe mediat shqiptare nuk pat\u00ebn rastin t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb. Dit\u00ebn q\u00eb u publikua raporti, kryeministri i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb shtroi nj\u00eb dark\u00eb n\u00eb Pallatin e Brigadave p\u00ebr nj\u00eb grup investitor\u00ebsh t\u00eb huaj. Ishte dhe ministri i Financave n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb dark\u00eb. P\u00ebr ata q\u00eb ishin t\u00eb v\u00ebmendsh\u00ebm, duhet t\u00eb ken\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb kreu i financave as q\u00eb ishte i v\u00ebmendsh\u00ebm n\u00eb dark\u00ebn zyrtare. Gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb koh\u00ebs ai q\u00ebndroi pothuajse larg ceremonis\u00eb, duke biseduar vet\u00ebm me nj\u00eb person, larg kurreshtjes s\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve: me drejtoren e Zyr\u00ebs s\u00eb BB n\u00eb  Tiran\u00eb.
 
\u00c7far\u00eb ka ndodhur Brenda 365 dit\u00ebve me ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare?<\/span><\/p>\n

Raporti  i 5 qershorit \u00ebsht\u00eb deciziv: \u201dPas nj\u00eb rritjeje prej 2.2 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb vitin 2011, shenjat e para tregojn\u00eb q\u00eb gjasht\u00eb vendet e Evrop\u00ebs Juglindore (EJL6) (Shqip\u00ebria, Bosnja dhe Hercegovina, Kosova, Maqedonia, Mali i Zi dhe Serbia) po p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm n\u00eb 1.1 p\u00ebrqind rritje p\u00ebr 2012, thot\u00eb \u017deljko Bogetic, ekonomisti kryesor p\u00ebr Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore dhe autor i numrit t\u00eb dyt\u00eb t\u00eb seris\u00eb s\u00eb raportit gjasht\u00ebmujor mbi zhvillimet ekonomike n\u00eb EJL. <\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00eb raportin nr 1 t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb EJL thuhej shprehimisht: \u201cParashikimet tona p\u00ebr rritjen ekonomike p\u00ebr vendet e EJL6 jan\u00eb 2.5 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb vitin 2011 dhe 2.1 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb vitin 2012, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta sesa ato p\u00ebrpara vitit 2008 me 6-10 p\u00ebrqind\u201d. No Comment!<\/p>\n

Po Shqip\u00ebria?<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrfshihet n\u00eb lajmin e mir\u00eb: sektori financiar \u00ebsht\u00eb ende relativisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb mir\u00eb, nivelet e kredive me problem, edhe pse t\u00eb larta shoq\u00ebrohen me likuiditet t\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm n\u00eb banka.
P\u00ebrfshihet edhe n\u00eb lajmin e keq: Rritja ekonomike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shoq\u00ebruar me pun\u00ebsim. Papun\u00ebsia dhe norma e lart\u00eb e varf\u00ebris\u00eb nuk e largon Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb nga 5 vendet e tjera t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Juglindore (EJL) q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lartat n\u00eb Europ\u00eb. Shqip\u00ebria nuk ka anket\u00eb t\u00eb Fuqis\u00eb Pun\u00ebtore,  shifra zyrtare p\u00ebr papun\u00ebsin\u00eb pas vitit 2009, sipas raportit, por analist\u00ebt thon\u00eb se 1 n\u00eb tet\u00eb njer\u00ebz t\u00eb aft\u00eb p\u00ebr pun\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i papun\u00eb, edhe pse n\u00eb 10 vjecarin e fundit papun\u00ebsia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie (Grafik Nr 1: Burimi Open data Albania<\/span>)<\/p>\n

 Bazuar n\u00eb shkall\u00ebn e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb, Shqip\u00ebria renditet e pesta n\u00eb rajon pas Maqedonis\u00eb (33%), Bosnje Hercegovin\u00ebs (24%), Serbis\u00eb (17.4%) dhe Turqis\u00eb (14%). Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb pas Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb (13%) renditen: Mali i Zi (11%), Greqia (9.4%) dhe Kroacia (9.2%). (Grafik Nr 2:)<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebto t\u00eb dh\u00ebna shqiptare duhet ve\u00e7uar edhe paradoksi t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht shqiptar lidhur me elasticitetin e vler\u00ebsuar t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb. Sipas raportit Shqip\u00ebria ka ulje t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike dhe pra nuk mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb edhe ulje t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb. Sipas teoris\u00eb s\u00eb verifikuar n\u00eb rajon, pra n\u00eb EJL6, rritja e ekonomis\u00eb me 1 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje duhet t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrohet me 0,2 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje r\u00ebnie n\u00eb nivelin e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb. Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ndodh q\u00eb ka edhe r\u00ebnie t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike, edhe r\u00ebnie t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb (!?)
 
Ku rrezikohemi?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka  nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb dhe kjo \u201c\u00ebsht\u00eb sfida kryesore afatshkurt\u00ebr e politikave p\u00ebr vendet n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat raporti borxh-PBB \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur shpejt,\u201d thot\u00eb Bogetic, duke theksuar se \u201cpolitikat ekonomike duhet t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb nj\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr nd\u00ebrmjet nevoj\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar financat publike dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb pak\u00ebsuar rreziqet makroekonomike nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb, dhe forcimit t\u00eb mjedisit t\u00eb politikave ekonomike p\u00ebr investime, rritje dhe vende pune, nga ana tjet\u00ebr.\u201d<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri drita n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tunelit as q\u00eb duket. P\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi i financave publike nuk vjen \u201cme frym\u00ebn e shenjt\u00eb\u201d. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave zyrtare tatimore, p\u00ebr 4 muajt e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit, \u201cTotali i t\u00eb ardhurave tatimore ka pasur nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej -0.3 p\u00ebr qind krahasuar me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn periudh\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb mosrealizim t\u00eb planit n\u00eb mas\u00ebn -8.7 p\u00ebr qind, nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb ardhurat nga kontributet jan\u00eb rritur me 4.9 p\u00ebr qind mbi baza vjetore, nd\u00ebrsa TVSH-ja ka pasur nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej -6.6 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb krahasim me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn periudh\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb; tatimfitimi ka pasur nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej -17.6 p\u00ebr qind; tatimi mbi t\u00eb ardhurat personale ka pasur nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej -0.7 p\u00ebr qind dhe akciza me r\u00ebnie prej -0.2 p\u00ebr qind, gjithnj\u00eb n\u00eb krahasim me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn periudh\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb pare\u201d.<\/p>\n

Nga ana tjet\u00ebr nuk shihet n\u00eb horizont as ndonj\u00eb politike imediate q\u00eb lidhet me forcimin e mjedisit t\u00eb politikave ekonomike n\u00eb investime. Biznesi shqiptar rrezikohet nga mungesa e theksuar e likuiditetit, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb banka ka rritje t\u00eb depozitave t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve, por edhe r\u00ebnie drastike t\u00eb kreditimit t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb dhe biznesit. Shifra prej minus 17,6 % e tatimfitimit p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sinajl i qart\u00eb se ka r\u00ebnie t\u00eb shitjeve, zvog\u00eblim t\u00eb fitimit dhe shkall\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt produktiviteti q\u00eb po humbet edhe konkurrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e kompanive shqiptare.<\/p>\n

Qeveria ka lajm\u00ebruar nd\u00ebrmarrjen e nj\u00eb pakete ligjore leht\u00ebsuese p\u00ebr biznesin, por kjo ka mbetur n\u00eb faz\u00ebn e demagogjis\u00eb, kur \u00ebsht\u00eb immediate. Nj\u00eblloj si premtimi p\u00ebr heqjen e pagave t\u00eb referenc\u00ebs, apo p\u00ebr heqjen e plot\u00eb t\u00eb tatimit mbi vler\u00ebn e shtuar t\u00eb makinerive e pajisjeve t\u00eb importuara p\u00ebr investime t\u00eb reja (!?).  N\u00eb kushtet e kriz\u00ebs, t\u00eb parashikimeve t\u00eb zymta, t\u00eb bllokimit t\u00eb kreditimit dhe t\u00eb \u201cluft\u00ebs\u201d me nervat e biznesmen\u00ebve borxhllinj ndaj bankave p\u00ebr kredit\u00eb e marra (koh\u00ebt e fundit ka filluar bllokimi n\u00eb mas\u00eb i llogarive bankare t\u00eb bizneseve) nj\u00eb paket\u00eb e till\u00eb nuk duhet shtyr\u00eb p\u00ebr n\u00eb kalendat greke. M\u00eb pas ajo nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb vler\u00eb!
 
Rreshtat e friksh\u00ebm t\u00eb raportit BB-2012<\/span><\/p>\n

Raporti thekson: \u201cRreziku i  problemeve edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr eurozon\u00ebn ka ardhur n\u00eb rritje  koh\u00ebt e fundit.  Ekziston  nj\u00eb  pasiguri  e lart\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me rezultatin e kriz\u00ebs greke dhe rrjedhojat e mundshme p\u00ebr ekonomit\u00eb evropiane dhe globale. Edhe n\u00eb  rastit e nj\u00eb zgjidhje graduale t\u00eb  kriz\u00ebs greke, ekonomia bot\u00ebrore ende duhet t\u00eb  p\u00ebrballet  me  pengesat e shkaktuara  nga \u00e7mimet e  larta t\u00eb  naft\u00ebs, reduktimin e hyrjeve  t\u00eb kapitalit, dhe konsolidimet fiskale dhe ato t\u00eb sektor\u00ebve bankar n\u00eb vendet me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb larta  \u2013  q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb tkurrin rritjen ekonomike, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn deri n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit. \u2026\u201d.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb kjo p\u00ebrkthehet n\u00eb at\u00eb tablo q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb re n\u00eb 4 mujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb 2012: M\u00eb pak t\u00eb hyra fiskale, m\u00eb pak pun\u00ebsim, me pak investime, m\u00eb pak kreditim t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, m\u00eb pak rritje ekonomike\u2026
 \n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Me nivelin e borxhit publik t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe presioneve t\u00eb financimit, shumica e vendeve n\u00eb rajon duhet t\u00eb adoptojn\u00eb programe t\u00eb gjera konsolidimi fiskal, p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar dinamik\u00ebn negative t\u00eb borxhit dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur problemin e financimit n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen Nuk kishte ndodhur ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, por \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb: P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb 15 vitet e fundit institucioni i Bretton Woods emeton nj\u00eb raport… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":22176,"url":"https:\/\/ndiqparate.al\/?p=22176","url_meta":{"origin":6572,"position":0},"title":"Shoq\u00ebria Civile, Vler\u00ebsimi i Sistemit Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Integritetit 2023","date":"May 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb artikull po zbardhim rezultate dhe rekomandime p\u00ebr Shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb Civile, t\u00eb b\u00ebra n\u00eb Raportin Vler\u00ebsimi i Sistemit Komb\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb Integritetit. 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