“The cost of debt per capita” is calculated as the ratio of total interest expense, paid from the budget for the outstanding debt, to the number of the population in a given year. It is a very important indicator, that helps in judging the solvency of the state debt, and furthermore, the repayment in time of interests. Open Data Albania has examined the performance of this indicator in 2010-2013.
Source: Ministry of Finance, INSTAT
Comments and Analysis: ODA
In 2010, the cost of debt per capita was 13,022 ALL, and a year later, it reached 14,572 ALL or about 11.9% higher. The main factor for this increase is the use of the results of the 2011 Census, according to which, the population for 2011 is estimated at about 11.2% lower than predictions of INSTAT for 2010. The huge difference of the level of population has led to null the effect of reducing the amount of interest paid in 2011 compared with a year ago. Thus, if the interest paid in 2010 amounted to 41.6 billion, in 2011 they were about 41.1 billion.
The situation changed in 2012. With a forecast of the Ministry of Finance for interest expenditure by the end of 2012 at 45.8 billion and assuming a population growth of 0.5% ,the cost of debt per capita turns 16,149 ALL, or about 10.8% higher than a year ago. But, while the increasing costs of debt per capita in 2011 was caused entirely by the use of new results of the population census, the 2012 increase was due to higher amount of interest paid on the debt. The situation seems to be in the same levels for 2013. The increase of the cost of debt per capita continues to be about 10.76%, to reach 17,887 ALL, or 71,548 ALL per year for an average family of 4 persons.
Source: Ministry of Finance, INSTAT
Comments and Analysis: ODA
The data for the interests during 2010-2011 are taken from the Ministry of Finance’s Reports – Treguesit fiskal sipas buxhetit të konsoliduar:
Year 2010: http://www.minfin.gov.al/minfin/pub/treguesit_fiskal_14_12_m_2010_23_05_2011_2228_1.pdf Year 2011: http://www.minfin.gov.al/minfin/pub/12_2011_treg_fiskalk_6_dt_28_05_2012xls_3445_1.pdf
The data for the interests during year 2012 are taken from “The report of the Projectbudget 2013”
The data for the interests in year 2013 are taken from “Budget 2013”
The data of population during 2010-2011 are taken from INSTAT
The population for 2012-2013 is a calculation of ODA