Open Data Albania is researching the performance of the Public Debt Stock in Albania from 2000 to 2022. Data for this research were obtained from the Ministry of Finance and Economy, the Institute of Statistics, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. For 2022, annual data are planned and reported in the Reports of State Authorities.
For 2022, the stock of Public Debt is planned to be around 1.40 billion ALL, with an increase of 78.6 billion ALL or 6% compared to the stock of public debt planned for 2021. This means a cost per capita of about 496,040 ALL or about 4,099 Euros per inhabitant. Compared to 2017, an Albanian citizen is expected to pay about 117,343 ALL more, with a per capita cost increase of 31%, for this five-year period.
For the first 9 months of 2021, the actual Public Debt is estimated at 1.28 billion ALL (about 10.7 billion Euros) or 76.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In nominal value, only for the period January-September 2021, the Public Debt Stock has increased by ALL 57.9 billion compared to the total public debt stock of the whole 2020. Regarding 2020, until the end of this year, public debt is estimated at 1.22 billion ALL or 77.9% of GDP. At the end of 2020, there is an increase of 111.6 billion ALL or 10% more compared to 2019.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy (2021), Debt Indicators
* Debt Stock includes Central, Local Government Debt and Guaranteed Debt (external and internal in total)
* For the 9 months 2021, the data are preliminary from the Ministry of Finance and Economy
Edited by: Open Data Albania
The increase in the Public Debt stock since 2019 has come as a result of the increase in government borrowing due to the deepening deficit due to low revenue realization and increased spending during 2020, the needs of reconstruction from the November earthquake, the situation created by the Covid-19 Pandemic. The Actual Budget Report 2020 reports the following values: Revenue realization for 2020 was 425.9 billion ALL, about 34.4 billion ALL or 7.5% less than 2019. The realization of expenditures during 2020 marked 536.2 billion ALL, which is 44.3 billion ALL or about 9% more than in 2019. Reconstruction Fund 2020 planned in the amount of ALL 32 billion, of which ALL 29 billion are State Budget Expenditures and ALL 3 billion are Grants. The fund of measures taken against Covid 19 with a total of 42.6 billion ALL, divided into budget funds (social anti-covid package, vaccines, other emergencies within Covid 19) totaling 16.6 billion ALL and 2 Sovereign Guarantees of 26 billion ALL.
Eurobond issuance in June 2020 (in the amount of 650 million Euros, with a maturity of 7 years and an interest rate of 3.5%), has marked an increase in Public Debt. The Ministry of Finance and Economy in November 2021, has announced the issuance of another Eurobond in international markets (in the amount of 650 million Euros).
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy (2021), Debt Indicators
* Debt Stock includes Central, Local Government Debt and Guaranteed Debt (external and internal in total)
* For the 9 months 2021, the data are preliminary from the Ministry of Finance and Economy
Edited by: Open Data Albania
Since 2012, there is an increase in Public Debt as a percentage of GDP of more than 60% which is one of the criteria of international institutions. Also in the Organic Budget Law in 2016 it is determined that every year the public debt decreases until it reaches below the limit of 45% of GDP (Article 4 of the Organic Budget Law). Specifically for 2020, this indicator marks 32.9 percentage points more than the allowed limit.
But the share of Public Debt to GDP would be higher if the calculation of Public Debt Stock includes contingent liabilities arising as a result of Concessions and PPPs which are treated off-balance sheet, i.e. not accounted for; government guarantees; liabilities of public companies; high Arbitrage bills, or other implicit hidden liabilities arising from the social and health insurance scheme that are currently deficit schemes, thus increasing the debt pressure in the long run.
For example, if we consider only the value of PPPs and Concessions that are with budget support (in total 13 contracts), the stock of contingent liabilities until the end of 2020, amounts to about ALL 181.5 billion. If this value is added to the Public Debt of 2020, then in nominal value the Public Debt would be about 1.40 billion ALL or about 90% of the GDP of 2020, i.e. 12.1 percentage points more than the Public Debt to GDP estimated for the same year.
If we add the actual cost of 109.4 million Euros that the Albanian State owes for International Arbitrage until 2020, the Public Debt in nominal value will be about 1.42 billion ALL or 90.2% of the GDP of 2020.
Compared to the Region, Albania ranks second with the highest public debt as a percentage of GDP for 2020, after Montenegro which marks 90.7% of GDP. The country with the lowest level of Public Debt to GDP is Kosovo with 22.4% of GDP for 2020.
Source:Ministry of Finance and Economy, 2021, Data from the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework 2022-2024, as well as from the Debt
For countries in the region, data are taken from the World Bank, Regular Economic Report, Fall 2021
* For 2021, data are forecast
Edited by: Open Data Albania
A country’s public debt stock is the total domestic and foreign public debt that has not yet been repaid in a given year. Public Debt Stock includes Internal Debt and External Debt of Central and Local Government, as well as Guaranteed Debt, which consists of public and private sector debt liabilities, the service of which is guaranteed under agreements by the Government.
For more detailed information on calculations, access the Excel file that accompanies this article.
Download excel: Public Debt Stock January 2022, Performance 2000-2022Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania
Translated by: Etleva Kondakçi
