Projection: Members of the Parliament mandate distribution, Election 2021, hypothetical national proportional race, with pre-election coalitions allowed

In this article, we will work on two hypothetical projections using the 2021 election results. More specifically, regarding the allocation of the MP mandates, considering and juxtaposing:

Option A: Current distribution of MP Mandates, using the Proportional Regional system versus the Hypothetical Scenario of a National Proportional system.

Option B: Current Mandate distribution through the with Proportional Regional system and the new legal stipulations versus a projection in which recent stipulations did not exist, allowing for separate candidates for subjects participating in coalitions (I.e with allowed pre-election coalitions). In brief, MP’s mandate distribution as it happened in the 2021 Election vs. Potential Mandate distribution using as reference the old 2017 Electoral Code.

Source: KQZ
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Source: KQZ
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

In all cases, the projections were based on the ballots secured by political entities in 2021. The calculation of the number of MP’s was carried out based on article 162 of the Electoral Code, as amended.

Option A: Proportional Regional Electoral System vs National Proportional Electoral System. Open Data Albania has carried out a comparison of the proportional regional system of election (12 electoral areas, that coincide with 12 districts) and the national proportional system of election (1 electoral zone that coincides with the entire Republic of Albania).

With the current system, the regional proportional system of competition, in 2021, the Socialist Party (Edi Rama) won 74 mandates, the Democratic Party – Alliance for Change (Lulzim Basha) secured 59 MP’s. Four parliamentary mandates went to the former Socialist Movement for Integration (Monika Kryemadhi) and three to the Social Democratic Party (Tom Doshi).

If we use the same number of votes and calculate the parliamentary seats using one electoral district, that is, with a national proportional system, it merges that the SP would win 3 MP’s less, namely 71 (again the majority). The DP-AC coalition would also lose two MP’s, bringing the number of its representatives to 57. The SMI/LP would secure 9 MP mandates in 2021 and not the 4 it did with a proportional system with national competition. For the Social Democratic Party, there would be no change in the number of mandates even with the new calculation.

The case of the 2021 elections would not be affected by the national voting threshold of 1%, which in fact with decision nr. 31 of the Constitutional Court, dated 04.10.2021, was repealed. The 1% threshold did not allow political entities to win a deputy mandate if they did not secure 1% of the votes at the country level, even though they could have reached the quotient within the district.

Source: KQZ
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Option B: Electoral Code 2021 vs Electoral Code 2017, Election Results 2021. Another option to be considered is  what would happen if the same old election system would be in force without the legal adjustments implemented in 2020 and 2021. If we assume that the Democratic Party would cooperate, by forming a coalition, with the SMI, that is, a coalition between the Democratic Party-Alliance for Change (Lulzim Basha) and SMI (Monika Kryemadhi), but with separate MP candidate lists, it emerges that the number of mandates won differs. There are four districts whose results would affect the final lection outcome, namely Vlora, Gjirokastra, Berati and Durrës. In these four districts, the cooperation between PD-AN by way of a pre-election coalition with SMI, would grant them four additional MP’s.

In conclusion, SP would not win 8 mandates in Vlore, but 7; more specifically, in Gjirokastër there would be 2 and not 3 mandates. Similarly, in Berat, the SP would win 4 mandates and not 5, as well as in Durrës, only 7 mandates would go to the SP and not 8.

These mandates lost by SP would go in favour to the coalition between PD-AN and the former SMI.

In the end, the Socialist Party would not have a simple majority of 71 MPs all on her own, but would win 70 MP’s. Whereas, the PD-AN coalition would provide for 67 MP’s instead of the current 63. The division within the coalition shows that 2 of the additional MP’s would go for PD-AN, namely in Vlora and Gjirokastër and the other 2in favour of the former SMI, in Berat and Durrës specifically. SDP’s three mandates would not be affected. The SP would not be able to form the government on her own, therefore, it would have to cooperate with another party.

Source: Open Spending Albania
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Source: Open Spending Albania
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Source: Open Spending Albania
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Source: Open Spending Albania
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Source: Open Spending Albania
Comments and Analysis: Open Data Albania

Other publications regarding Election Results, as well an overview of the Political Parties and other aspects can be found on the Open Data Albania website with the topics Election Processes and Election Expenditures.

Download excel: Projection: Members of the Parliament mandate distribution, Election 2021, hypothetical national proportional race, with pre-election coalitions allowed
Comments and Analyses: Open Data Albania
Contributed by: Ilir Brasha
Translated by: Rezarta Cushaj